Value is on Democrat to win at +125 or +130, and Biden at around +300
If GOP is dumb enough to put Trump back on the ticket, then Democrats will just line up Biden against him and win pretty comfortably. Only thing interesting about that elections is by how much does Biden break his own total votes record. Gotta think 85 million is pretty attainable, and maybe 90 million is on the table.
It is a little murkier with DeSantis, but I don't think DeSantis is the right flavor of Republican to win in 2024. His value is definitely inflated because of his large MOV in Florida in November.
He's gonna basically need to win at least 3 of 4 in Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Possibly all 4. And that's assuming he can hold all the Trump close wins, such as North Carolina. Not impossible, but it will be very difficult.
DeSantis is pretty much toast in Michigan and Pennsylvania bearing some monumental change, such as him having an epiphany and believing in women's rights. Even a state like Ohio is not a complete lock -- though likely in the red column.
In DeSantis scenario though, it's obviously more likely we see a different candidate than Biden for the Democrats. Newsom a little risky, but probably a clean enough candidate to win. Kamala would be the only candidate that could be a disaster for the Democrats, but they are smart enough to avoid that....I think.
GOP would be wise to get out of the DeSantis/Trump jam and look at someone like a Phil Scott in Vermont or someone of that ideology -- socially pretty liberal and can appeal a lot more in tipping point states IMO. GOP probably too stubborn and dysfunctional to entertain an openly pro-choice Republican though
If GOP is dumb enough to put Trump back on the ticket, then Democrats will just line up Biden against him and win pretty comfortably. Only thing interesting about that elections is by how much does Biden break his own total votes record. Gotta think 85 million is pretty attainable, and maybe 90 million is on the table.
It is a little murkier with DeSantis, but I don't think DeSantis is the right flavor of Republican to win in 2024. His value is definitely inflated because of his large MOV in Florida in November.
He's gonna basically need to win at least 3 of 4 in Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Possibly all 4. And that's assuming he can hold all the Trump close wins, such as North Carolina. Not impossible, but it will be very difficult.
DeSantis is pretty much toast in Michigan and Pennsylvania bearing some monumental change, such as him having an epiphany and believing in women's rights. Even a state like Ohio is not a complete lock -- though likely in the red column.
In DeSantis scenario though, it's obviously more likely we see a different candidate than Biden for the Democrats. Newsom a little risky, but probably a clean enough candidate to win. Kamala would be the only candidate that could be a disaster for the Democrats, but they are smart enough to avoid that....I think.
GOP would be wise to get out of the DeSantis/Trump jam and look at someone like a Phil Scott in Vermont or someone of that ideology -- socially pretty liberal and can appeal a lot more in tipping point states IMO. GOP probably too stubborn and dysfunctional to entertain an openly pro-choice Republican though
Lines have moved since I last checked...
had trump as the fav at +280 at that point.
Would be unwise to bet anyone right now imo.
If I was forced I would have to go DeSantis or Trump.
Though its still around 2 years off and incumbents always have a home field advantage.
Wouldn't touch it now.
had trump as the fav at +280 at that point.
Would be unwise to bet anyone right now imo.
If I was forced I would have to go DeSantis or Trump.
Though its still around 2 years off and incumbents always have a home field advantage.
Wouldn't touch it now.
What?
If DeSantis wins nomination dems are in big trouble.
A younger guy going up against a likely 80 year old biden in a weak economy(still has time to change in 2 years) is a nightmare. DeSantis would have to at lest be a -500 fav.
The only reason DeSantis isn't a heavy favorite right now is because election is still years out and larger reason that Trump looks very strong in republican polls in winning the nomination.
If DeSantis wins nomination he is our next president imo. But winning the nomination will be the larger hurdle.
